Gomery aftermath

It Looks like there's going to be a Christmas election. If the NDP doesn't agree to a new deal with the liberals the minority government will fall. Even if a deal is reached the conservatives, bloc, and all the independents could still bring the government. But the conservatives are weary because fighting an election over the sponsorship scandal won't get off to a get start if its just the conservatives and the separtists bringing down the government. Both the liberals and Conservatives need the NDP and Layton will have to decide which party's offer is more lucrative for the NDP. The NDP might want to wait and at election time claim they were the party that tried to make parliament work and didn't bring down the government the first chance they got. At election time the NDP will only experience modest improvements as it looks doubtful they get more than 20% support.

The outrage is limited this time. Polls still show a slight liberal lead at just over 30%. It wasn't as bad as the Brault testimony when the liberals dropped to 25%. Next election it looks like the Bloc will receive about 60 seats and the NDP 25 seats. That's all ready 85 seats which leaves only 223 seats. 155 is needed for a majority and for one of the major parties to form a majority the other needs to receive less than 68 seats. We're headed for another minority. If Martin doesn't get a majority- he's gone, if Harper doesn't get the PM's chair- he's gone. If the liberals win again look for radical conservatives to put up a hissy fit and become separtists.

This scandal will give a black mark to Chretien's legacy but in the end it still will be very positive. Every budget has been balanced since '95. The government's finances are the best run in the G8. The Conservatives and NDP have constantly criticized the government for spending the surplus money on the deficit. In the past right-wingers wanted balanced budgets but with Bush's administration they have refined their message by claiming the deficit is not the people's problem and giving massive tax cuts and recording even larger deficits is good financial planning.