Liberal Leadership Idol
The next Liberal Leadership will be the first time since 1968 when Pierre Trudeau won the leadership on the fourth ballot. John Turner won the 1984 Leadership on the second ballot. Chretien and Martin both won their leadership bids on the first ballot. With no front-runner the liberals have an opportunity to renew themselves and talk where they want there party to head. Do they want to move to the left to take support from the NDP and Green Party. Or do they want to move right fiscally and maintain progressive social policies to maintain their base and expand into the former PC party base. Also if 10 or more candidates plan on running their will be innovative ideas that some candidates will discuss to attempt to make some noise. Constitutional reform, healthcare reform, and focus on international institutions will be debated. With no front-runner it's possible the Liberals may search for the next Trudeau and choose someone who is inexperienced who they feel could dominate Canadian politics for over a decade. Also there are no westerners expected to be front-runners for the top post as Liberal leader and expect Anne McLellan and Ujjal Dosanjh to be kingmaker's who could aid a victory of another front runner. Here's the Top 10 Leadership Hopefuls (with links to sites that support the leaders):
1. John Manley
Pros: Named Newsmaker of the Year for guiding Canada's Foreign Policy through the post 9/11 era. Also finished second to Paul Martin in obtaining the most liberal memberships for the leadership before pulling out.
Cons: Is seen as too American and supports Canada cutting its ties with the monarchy.
Strategy: Will strive to heal rift with US and keep Canada's foreign policy independent at the same time. Also will criticize Martin for mishandling sponsorship scandal.
2. Frank McKenna
Pros: Won every seat in 1987 as Premier of New Brunswick. Was Canada's ambassador to the US.
Cons: As close ties to the Caryle Group and is seen as a loose cannon. Also top Martin strategists are rumoured to be supporting him.
Strategy: Will position himself as a candidate that will heal the Chretien-Martin split in the party and will expand the Liberal base beyond Ontario and Quebec.
3. Stephane Dion
Pros: Created the clarity act and is a francophone. Historically the Liberal Party rotates the leadership between English and French speakers. Also was environment minister in Martin cabinet. One of the few Quebec ministers not tainted by sponsorship scandal.
Cons: Is seen as too close to Chretien and has even less charisma than Stephen Harper.
Strategy: Will run as a candidate who will bring Quebec back to the Liberals. Also will criticize Harper and NDP for being soft on Quebec nationalists.
4. Ken Dryden
Pros: Won 6 Stanley Cups with Montreal Canadiens and was Canada's goalie for the 1972 series. In his post-hockey life he became a lawyer and wrote "The Game", which is arguably the greatest book of hockey, and was President of the Toronto Maple Leafs. He has close ties to Ontario and Quebec. He is seen a motivator, philosopher and it was his idea for Martin to address the nation to change the momentum.
Cons: Most people don't think he wants to become PM and might not even run. Also his political experience is limited.
Strategy: Will run as someone who will make gains in Ontario and Quebec. Also he is very likely to campaign on some ideas and be a visionary. (ie constitutional or electoral reform)
5. Belinda Stronach
Pros: Former Magna CEO. Once ranked second most powerful women in the world behind the Queen. Is attractive and is thick-skinned. Finished second to Harper for Conservative Leadership. Is progressive on social policies, supports increased foreign aid, and supports corporate tax cuts. Her defection gave federalists six months to plan strategy against Bloc and this election Bloc lost seats and didn't wind up with 65-70 seats in Quebec. If she wins, would become first female leader of the Liberals ever.
Cons: Ran for the Conservative leadership. After defection she was smeared by media and opposition parties.
Strategy: Will play the Female and Youth Card. Will campaign as a leader that will shake Canada up as the first female leader. Also will appeal to youth voters and promise to lower the voting age to 16 if she wins.
6. Michael Ignatieff
Pros: Former-Harvard Professor and son of a well-respected diplomat. His academic background reminds some of Trudeau.
Cons: Anti-Ukrainian. Supported the Iraq war, Missile Defense, is viewed as being arrogant, and it's not clear if he supports or opposes torture.
Strategy: Will try to persuade high-profile Liberals to support him and run on the scholar card.
7. Martin Cauchon
Pros: As Justice minister introduced the bill legalizing same-sex marriage. Also as a francophone could rebuild the Liberals Quebec base.
Cons: Martin wouldn't include him in his cabinet and could be seen as pro-Chretien and alienate Martin side of party.
Strategy: Will run as a fighter against Quebec separatism, social conservatives, and Paul Martin.
8. Brian Tobin
Pros: Charismatic. Captain Canada nearly went to war with Spain and spearheaded the Canada rally before the Quebec referendum.
Cons: abruptly quit cabinet as industry minister. Supported the Iraq war. Seen as big government and now as become close with big business.
Strategy: Will run as Captain Canada and is the candidate most likely to stir the pot.
9. Bob Rae
Pros: Former Ontario premier has been visible in his post-political life. Was an NDP politician who could win leadership because their is no high-profile left of centre liberal candidate.
Cons: Was one-term premier and badly managed Ontario's economy.
Strategy: He will campaign as being a champion of human rights and maintaining Canada's reputation as a humanitarian in the world.
10. Scott Brison
Pros: Handled Public Works portfolio in tumulterous time after sponsorship scandal revealed. Is Gay and is seen as socially progressive. Refused to join new conservative party.
Cons: Is a former Progressive Conservative who advocated lower taxes and a privatized healthcare system.
Strategy: Will viscously attack Peter Mackay and say he is the best candidate to stand up to social conservatives. Also will match conservative tax cuts and will try differentiate conservatives and liberal policy exclusively on social policy.











8 Comments:
"Anti-Ukrainian."
You have got to be kidding.
Gerard Kennedy. Born and raised in Manitoba. Attended University of Alberta. Opened first food bank in Canada (in Edmonton). Every party wanted him to run for them in Alberta. Instead, came to Toronto to run the Daily Bread Food Bank. Every party wanted him to run for them in Ontario. Probably best Ontario Minister of Education ever (or at least the last 20 years). Bilingual. Good Guy. Check him out at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_Kennedy
Ignatieff anti-Ukrainian?
Methinks you missed the resolution of that particular episode.
Kennedy is the man. Seriously, this could be 1968 all over again.
I'd learn a bit about him because he's going to raise a lot of eyebrows in the coming months.
"My difficulty in taking Ukraine seriously goes deeper than just my cosmopolitan suspicion of nationalists everywhere. Somewhere inside I'm also what Ukrainians would call a great Russian and there is just a trace of old Russian disdain for these little Russians" from Ignatieff's book Blook and Belonging
I know Ignatieff said he though the Ukrainian famine was horrible. But his past comments shows he rejects the idea of a Ukrainian state. This is embrassing considering Canada was the second country in the world to recognize an independent and free Ukraine.
I never heard of Gerard Kennedy before or heard him speak. He sounds good but I still need to know more about him before I consider him as a serious candidate.
Grits need a Trudeau like person to sweep the party...or it will be in the down time like during the Turner years for them
Gerard Kennedy has to be the one. He's got absolutely everything the party needs.
Plus, the day I moved out of High Park he happened to be walking by my house and saw me struggling with some packed boxes, and he proceeded to help me load up my car. An all around nice guy.
Either Kennedy or Dion is going to be a good pick for the party. The party cannot continue to rely solely on Central Canadians to lead the party. Kennedy has the appeal of being a Western Canadian with a good political base in Ontario. Dion is a Quebecer, but may be the best chance of rebuilding the party's fortunes in that province.
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