Where are the Liberals Losing Support?
Most of the recent polls have the Conservatives in the high 30's, the Liberals are in the high 20's, the NDP is in the high teens, the BQ has also fallen to around 10%, and the Greens are around 5%.
When the election was called the Liberals were in the high 30's, the Conservatives were in the high 20's, the NDP was the same, the Bloc was a few percent higher, and the Greens were the same.
So what happened and where did the liberals lose all their support?
Ontario
Jan 14: Con: 37, Lib: 34, NDP: 24, Green: 6 (SES)
Dec 3: Lib: 48, Con: 30, NDP: 16, Green: 6 (SES)
Quebec
Jan 14: BQ: 45, Con: 24, Lib: 20, NDP: 7, Green: 4 (SES)
Dec 1: BQ: 50, Lib: 30, Con: 9, NDP: 6, Green: 6 (SES)
BC
Jan 12: Con: 47, Lib: 28, NDP: 20, Green: 5 (Strategic Counsel)
Dec 1: Lib: 34, Con: 32, NDP: 26, Green: 9 (Strategic Counsel)
Alberta
Jan 12: Con: 59, NDP: 17, Lib: 16, Green: 7 (Ipsos-Reid)
Nov 29: Con: 59, Lib: 16, NDP: 10, Green: 8 (Ipsos-Reid)
Man/Sask
Jan 12: Cons: 45, Lib: 32, NDP: 20, Green: 3 (Ipsos-Reid)
Nov 29: Con: 39, Lib: 25, NDP: 20, Green: 3 (Ipsos-Reid)
Atlantic
Jan 14: Con: 39, Lib: 37, NDP: 22, Green: 2 (SES)
Dec 1: Lib: 49, Con: 31, NDP: 18, Green: 1 (SES)
The Liberals aren't doing bad in one region. Their support is sinking everywhere. The only province with encouraging numbers is Alberta where they are holding their support. In Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada the Liberals have fallen by over 10%. This is tradionally the Conservatives weakest region but the east is where the Conservatives are making the biggest gains. Several prominent Liberals are in dire straits Pettigrew, Brison, and Stronach. Another factor hurting the Liberals is NDP and Green voters are not moving to the liberals. In Ontario it looks like the NDP is actually growing.
If Paul Martin wants to reverse this trend he has to be bold. Something must attract Canadians to vote Liberal. It's too late to introduce new policies. New negative ads, bringing prominent Canadians to support him (no Joe Clark yet), and face-to-face confrontations between Liberals and Conservatives. It will be an exciting week.











1 Comments:
The answer is easy. The liberals are losing support everywhere because of their values. Mostly criminals would suport them. The harder question is why. But the answer has to do with:
the date of the Gomery report;
plus the date of Belinda defection;
plus the date of the popcorn and beer comment;
plus the date of the Jane Creba death;
plus the date of the Duffy vs Duffy argument about negative ads.
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