Will the Conservatives win all the seats in Alberta in the next federal election?
Last provincial election the tories had an untested leader whose personal support was lukewarm but running under a conservative banner guaranteed them a massive majority. This spring there could be a federal election and is there any chance there will be a non-conservative Alberta MP heading to Ottawa?
The only two seriously contested ridings in Alberta are Edmonton-Centre and Edmonton-Strathcona. Edmonton-Centre is Anne McClellan's former riding and if the Liberal's national campaign is strong this riding could move back to the Liberals. Edmonton-Strathcona is Alberta's most progressive riding and the progressive vote is divided between the Liberals and NDP. If there is one strong progressive candidate this riding can move to the NDP or the Liberals.
Beyond those two ridings Alberta is Tory blue. The incumbent candidates easily win their ridings with over 50% of the total vote. In theory a strong local candidate could organize an upset but with no signs of conservatism wavering in Alberta this doesn't sound plausible. The best alternative to the conservatives may one day be the green party. The Green Party's support was strongest in Alberta last federal election but without a recognizable candidate they still aren't ready to win a seat a general election.
Conservative dominance can't last forever. The longer there is a conservative provincial and federal governments in power the conservatives stranglehold on Alberta will weaken. Conservatives won't be able to blame the provincial or federal governments for policy errors. The more Conservatives assume they are Alberta's only political party, the more Albertans will turn from them. Dynasties don't last forever and if Albertans are united in their rage, the conservatives could lose the majority of their seats in provincial and federal elections.











1 Comments:
I agree. I am one Albertan who is leaning towards a more sustainable future and better environmental policies than have been offered by the static Conservative government.
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