Quebec Regionalism Prevents Conservative Majority

Here's my election postmortem which is a bit delayed.

The conservatives pulled the plug on parliament because they saw crumpling Bloc support in Quebec. It looked like Quebecers were ready to move past regional politics like the west did with the reform party and start voting for national parties. But the Bloc seized on the Arts cuts issue and appealed again to Quebec nationalism which maintained their seat total.

The rest of the country's election results were a pleasant surprise for the conservatives. They picked up a seat in PEI, became the dominant party in Ontario, and maintained their base in Western Canada. The only hurdle was Newfoundland where Danny Williams successfully stopped the conservatives from winning a single seat on the rock.

The Liberals were the big losers in this election. They made a mild comeback in Quebec and their support dropped in English Canada where the other three national parties capitalized. Stephane Dion was a great cabinet minister who battled for Canadian unity and better environment policies. The biggest loss for Canada if he departs his the end of the "tough love" approach to Quebec and the embrace of special concessions to Quebec nationalists. The liberals need to reinvent themselves and make bigger changes than just switching the captain. Andrew Coyne summarized it the best on election night. He made the point that the Liberals won majorities because Ontarion and Quebec were fortresses that other parties couldn't make in roads in. Then they lost Quebec and their majority government. This election they lost Ontario and haven't attempted to make any inroads in the West. The only dominant region the liberals still have is Atlantic Canada.

The NDP looked like the national party that would fade away. The Liberals were expected to regain NDP support to defeat the conservatives and the Green party would siphon off environmental support from the NDP. But Jack Layton ran his strongest campaign and challenged the Liberals position as Canada's dominant progressive party. He didn't become the opposition leader but he maintained his support by criticizing liberal inaction in parliament. In the last week Dion tried to scare NDP voters but failed. After the results came in the NDP maintained or grew their seat total in every region in the nation.

The Greens were the party most disillusioned with their election night result. It is apparent their support slid significantly due to strategic voting that went to the Liberals or NDP to stop conservative candidates. The Greens have run a national campaign the last 3 elections and steadily increased their popular vote but failed to win any seats. May dominated the election coverage early with her exclusion from the debate and her strong performance should have won green seats but it didn't. It's unfair the Greens don't seats while the Bloc has 50 seats with a slightly higher popular vote. The Greens need to realize for a new party to break-in they need to start out as a regional party. The Greens should focus on 20 ridings they might be able to win and use all their resources to win those ridings. They can still run candidates in every riding but it shouldn't be expected for the leader to make a cross-country tour when should could be better utilized by knocking on doors in ridings they have a shot at winning.