Stephen Dion could win a Liberal-Green coalition minority government

Stephen Harper originally called this election because the Bloc looked like they were on the brink of collapse and just through his potential gains in Quebec (10-20 seats) it appeared that Harper would be close to a majority. Harper's next planned move was to attack Dion for weak leadership and combined with momentum from Quebec gains another 10 or more seats in Ontario and BC, Harper might have been able to form a majority government.

Two weeks ago that was a possibility but his mishandling of his response to a global financial crisis has erased his gains and in the last week he is fighting to remain as prime minister. Harper didn't release his platform before the debate and his "don't panic" approach to the finish crisis looks like he doesn't care and doesn't want to take any risks.

Stephane Dion's poor English and the "not a leader" ads reduced Stephane Dion's image to that as a struggling leader who would immediately be replaced after the election. But the financial crisis has boosted the Liberals because of their record of rejuvenating weak Canadian economies. The Liberals defeated R.B. Bennett's conservative government after the Great Depression occurred. Most recently it was Jean Chretien's government who balanced the budget and lowered the unemployment rate after taking over during a recession.

The NDP's support is growing as Canadians are becoming more alienated from Canada's two major parties. The NDP's realistic goal was to replace the liberals as the official opposition. Even with growing support from a politically-central platform it is too difficult for the NDP to double their support nationally but being able to secure 20% of the vote and obtaining
double-digit support in Quebec the NDP won't be able to become the official opposition party.

The Bloc were Stephen Harper's original target for seats but the Conservatives campaign has alienated Quebec voters. Cutting of arts programs, getting tough on young offenders, and lack of empathy towards the financial crisis has driven some conservative supporters back to the Bloc.

No other party will gain more than the Green party. Elizabeth May's presence at the debate solidified the Greens as a major political party. The Greens support will double or even triple from their 4% vote total last-time and there will be Green seat victories and the bar now is set higher for them to get official party status (12 seats) and not just win one seat.

My prediction is based on the recent Liberal surge in the polls. The Liberals couldn't have picked a better time to rise in the polls. This recent growth will help sway undecided voters and win back voters. I predict the Liberals will receive a higher popularity vote than the Conservatives but will receive fewer seats the conservatives.

2008 Seat/Vote Projection
Conservative 109 seats-30%
Liberal 106 seats-32%
Bloc 50 seats-8%
NDP 32 seats-20%
Green 6 seats-10%
Ind. 2 seats

If this scenario occurs it is very likely the Liberals and Greens will form a coalition minority government that will give Stephane Dion the Prime Minister's chair. Also for this government to work the NDP won't be able to prop up the conservatives or the Liberals/Greens. For a Liberal/Green government to survive they will have to secure support from the conservatives or the Bloc. If the financial crisis persists the parties can't look opportunistic by forcing an early election after the public decided who to give their support during this financial crisis.

BC will the source of Green support with the 3 established seats losing ground as the Greens will pick up 4 greens in BC. Look for the Greens to defeat Liberals Hedy Fry and Keith Martin. Also, Gary Lunn will lose his seat in the Gulf Islands.

The Prairies will remain a conservative stronghold but will lose some ground to NDP who have moved themselves closer to the center by opposing a carbon tax. The NDP might even make a breakthrough in Edmonton-Strathcona in Alberta.

Last election the conservatives won several close elections in Ontario but slide in their support will cause them to lose several close ridings. Tony Clement will be another minister who lose his seat and Guelph could move to the Greens.

Quebec was supposed to be a windfall for the Conservatives with the Bloc in freefall but expect only minor changes in party seat totals in Quebec.

The Liberals Green Shift has not sold well in Atlantic Canada. The NDP will make some gains and I expect Elizabeth May to defeat Peter Mackay in his own riding. May was second in London, Ontario even though she was a parachuted candidate. May is from Nova Scotia and party leaders have a good record of winning seats from other parties in recent years. (Jack Layton and Joe Clark)

The North only has 3 seats but has had more attention due to global warming, northern sovereignty, and Aboriginal/Inuit rights. Stephane Dion's presence in the North during the election campaign will help him win back the Liberals former seat in the Western Arctic.