We have a race

Weeks ago it appeared Stephen Harper was inching towards a majority or a stronger minority. But due to missteps the national race is too close to call. The polls are too inconsistent and the undecided vote is too high. Due to Harper's declining popularity I think it is very possible that Dion could become Prime Minister by winning the most seats or by willing to form a coalition with the NDP or Green party.

Unlike past elections where the national result was known days before the vote it is apparent that due to many undecided voters and strategic voting in the mix Harper could win a majority a minority or Dion could win a minority.

So what is certain.

The conservatives will lose ground in Quebec after negative reaction to Arts cuts and youth crime reform. In Ontario and BC they have lost support in swing ridings. These losses will result in an overall drop of seats but will it be severe enough to be defeated from government.

As the stock market crashed the Liberal poll numbers soared. Dion handled the financial crisis better than Harper and used the Liberal brand's history of solving economic problems to rebound his polling numbers. Dion's biggest challenge is Atlantic Canada where the green shift has not sold well and it will likely result in a drop of seats. Dion's big hope for any gains is in Ontario or Quebec where star candidates like Justin Trudeau and Gerard Kennedy could gain new Liberal seats.

The NDP set their sites high but if the NDP seriously wants to be considered to form government they need a less in your face leader than Jack Layton. The NDP will increase their popular vote and the only place where they will grow in seats will be the prairies.

The Green Party will double their vote. But with a vote dispersed through the country it is still very difficult for them to win a seat.