Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Kathleen Sebelius Not Hillary Clinton more likely to be Obama's VP

Barack Obama has fought the past 6 months against Hillary Clinton and the close has become increasingly heated. Recently, the Clinton campaign suggested that Obama would be Clinton's choice of VP and Obama vigorously rejected this offer from the "second place candidate".

Political commentators have said the two most important attributes of a VP candidate are shared values with the President and the ability to help win support from areas or groups not attracted to the Presidential candidate.

Barack Obama is running against George W Bush's policies and the bitter partisanship in Washington. In his fight against Hillary the Clintons have been included in this group for being in Washington too long and supporting some of Bush's foreign policies. Obama's frustration at the Clinton campaign has shown in his distaste for being accused of plagiarism for borrowing a quote from one his chief campaign organizers, and the 3 AM Ad distances the two candidates further. Obama is not just running against the republicans but also Hillary and her win at any cost strategy. He has repeatably said a close win is not good enough and for real change to occur democrats need to form a broad coalition to make the change they want.

The second objective for choosing a VP candidate doesn't apply to Hillary either. The Democrats will easily win New York if Hillary is on the ballot or not. If Obama wants to gain states next election a VP from the Midwest or the South is more advantageous.

Obama's most likely VP candidate is someone from this area of the country who also is pushing for change and is not changed by years in Washington. Kathleen Sebelius is the most likely candidate. She is the same age as Hillary Clinton and has experience in a leadership position as a Governor. Unlike Clinton she has earned her political fortunes and not relied on her husband's political legacy. Days after she endorsed Obama in Kansas he won the state handily with over 70% of the vote. Barack Obama is likely to return the favour a loyalist not his fierce opponent.

Monday, March 10, 2008

All Options Needs to be on the table for change in Alberta

Progressive voters in Alberta feels disenfranchised. In every election for over a quarter of a century voters have repeatedly re-elected the conservatives into power. This election looks like it would be different. Stelmach was a rookie Premier who hasn't connected with the voters and was now shouldering the burden for inaction during Klein's last term. But Stelmach increased his seats and lowered the opposition parties to a few ridings.

Despair is not a strong enough word for Albertans who want change. The PC party has 9x more seats than their closest rival. Even if they struggle through the next term the opposition parties have to much ground up to defeat the conservatives in one term.

The problem for the opposition is that the PC party has been governing for so long and have no other party has been had the opportunity to govern. The Social Credit was in power almost 40 years ago and Liberals were in power in Alberta over 80 years ago. If change does occur the new government would have no governing experience and voters wouldn't no want to expect. Regardless if the economy is strong or not, new ideas are needed to rejuvenate this province to correct the staleness of the present government.

If the opposition parties want a new government they must be bold.

A unite the left coalition between the Liberals and New Democrats would have a combined vote total of 35%. If the merger works the federal conservative merger the 2 parties should be able to attract a higher voter total as one party than two separate parties. If the 2 parties are able to go over 40% the PC party would lose power or be reduced to a minority.

The other option if to replace the leaders. The Liberals are the strongest opposition party and have MLA's in Edmonton and Calgary. But historically changing the leader didn't change the parties fortunes. (except for Decore) The Liberals need to find an outsider to lead the party and yet still articulate the party's philosophy. Anne McLellan a former deputy PM would be an ideal choice. She has experience governing, she is visible, but she has baggage from the federal Liberal party. Another better option if finding a political rookie (an Alberta Obama) who lives in rural Alberta and who could topple the Conservatives in every region of Alberta.

Next election there will be new leaders and if there is will among the major opposition parties there could be a new strong united party to give Albertans who aren't afraid of change a creditable option.

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Vote Alberta Liberal

37 years is too long for one party to govern a province continuously. Even if you believe the Alberta PC's are doing a great job there is no bar to compare them to in Alberta because they have been Alberta's only government for over a quarter of a century. In this period of rapid growth Alberta needs a fresh government with new ideas, a willingness to change, and new leadership to fix unresloved problems in all government departments.

In comparison to the US primaries the Alberta election have been uneventful and all the leaders have failed to mobilize the voters and make this election an event. Alberta is in a boom. Our population is exploding and there is unrest targeted against the sitting government because they have been too slow to adapt to the problems of rapid growth. Housing is difficult to find, our roadways haven't been upgraded, oil companies royalties have been too low, the environment has been ignored, and more time has been wasted by our political leaders fighting with the feds over hypothetical policies than actually making real change in this province.

The population is ready for a change but none of the opposition parties have been able to mobilize the population. The opposition parties all have new ideas but they don't have a charismatic leader to lead them to victory. If Albertans want change they can't wait for the leader to come to them, they have to find the party whose policies that will lead this province in the 20th century.

For me that party is the Alberta Liberals. I always have liked Kevin Taft. Since he first was an MLA he has grabbed my attention for his well-thought out arguments and his progressive values. Politicians represent the people but they should never become prisoners to opinion polls. If they disagree with the popular opinion they should work hard to persuade people rather than let their pollsters run the party.

Taft is not the strongest orator or the most charismatic politician but he has been battling the tories for years and has a plan to transform this province. Our natural resources are a great asset but we must diversify our economy and this province's financial health shouldn't be completely dependent on the price of oil. Alberta's government must be as dynamic as its economy. A political party should never assume it's the natural government. Change in government is necessary in order to scrap stale programs, to bring rapid changes for a growing province, and a new party in charge of the direction of the province will prove to this nation that Albertans aren't afraid of change.

“This is our lottery win and we have a choice. We can spend it all now or we can think through a plan and invest it and live off the interest forever” Kevin Taft