Liberal Leadership Idol Redux

Two years ago the Liberals went through a year long leadership contest to choose their new leader. Paul Martin was surprisingly defeated and they hoped a year long contest would help them find the next Trudeau. The Liberal Leadership race showed how archaic the party is. The delegates have too much power and individual voters are only able to participate on the first ballot. After the first ballot Martin loyalists supported Ignatieff, Chretien loyalists supported Rae, and the grassroots delegates supported Dion/Ignatieff who combined their support to win the leadership.

The race hasn't officially started but if the Liberals want to change the first place they should change is how they select the Liberal leader. Rather than letting the delegates choose the leader the individual members should be given the power. Belinda Stronach has lobbied for a member one vote process but there are issues with that process. If that's how the party selects the leader over half of the members will be from Ontario and smaller Liberal support in Western Canada won't have a say on where the party should be headed so the Liberals can be competitive in every region. The liberals should copy the conservatives leadership selection process. Every riding should be given 100 points and the popular support in each riding will be candidates voting totals. Each member would be empowered and be allowed to choose their top 2 or 3 candidates and after lower candidates are knocked off the ballot the individual voters not the delegates will choose the next leader.

Here's the top 10 Liberal Leadership Contenders and a link to my top 10 last time:

1. Michael Ignatieff

Pros: He was first on the initial ballot last time and despite being a rookie politician hasn't made any serious missteps as the deputy Liberal leader.

Cons: He is viewed by some as an American sympathizer and his intellectual background can make him look arrogant. Unlike other front-runners he has no experience as a cabinet minister.

Strategy: Ignatieff will assemble the same team he used last time and run a campaign that will state things would have been different if he won the leadership last time.

2. Bob Rae

Pros: Rae was second on the initial ballot last time. He defeated a popular Ontario premier and was pivotal in the defeat of Joe Clark's minority government.

Cons: The economy is in disarray and Rae's economic record as Premier of Ontario is something he doesn't want to brag about.

Strategy: Rae will run as the party's most visible left of centre candidate who will lure NDP supporters back to the Liberals.

3. Frank McKenna

Pros: McKenna won every single seat in New Brunswick when he was premier in the 80's. He has had success in the financial sector and was a former ambassador to the US.

Cons: He likely won't run period. He was rumoured to run in the last 3 leadership contests but because there was doubt if he could win he chickened out.

Strategy: McKenna's presense will immediately siphon support from Ignatieff and his record as a winner will convert Liberals who want to win now.

4. John Manley

Pros: Manley was a former deputy Prime Minister who served as the finance, foreign affairs, and industry minister in Chretien's cabinet. He was second in membership sales against the Martin machine before he dropped out.

Cons: He didn't run last-time and some of his supporters in the Martin leadership race may stick with the Ignatieff or Rae camps. Manley is on the right-side of the party and he will have to convince Liberals he can win over conservative voters.

Strategy: If Manley wants to win he should mimic Hillary Clinton's strategy. He was in government and can be trusted to make the tough decisions.

5. Ujjal Dosanjh

Pros: Dosanjh is a former Premier and Health minister who is a minority and on the left-side of the party.

Cons: Dosanjh barely hung on to his seat and most Liberals will likely support an Ontario leader who can win back Ontario.

Strategy: Dosanjh will appeal to minorities and western Liberal supporters who want the Liberals to be more competitive in the west.

6. Belinda Stronach

Pros: Stronach finished second to Harper in the last conservative race and has lobbied for changes to the Liberal Leadership process.

Cons: Canadians haven't rewarded party defectors with the leadership of their new party.

Strategy: Stronach will try to appeal to female supporters and more right-wing Liberals who feel the party is moving to far to the left.

7. David Orchard

Pros: Orchard had a strong showing in the last PC leadership race despite being considered a tourist in the party.

Cons: Orchard's anti-free trade stance is at odds with many Liberals who now accept Free Trade.

Strategy: Unlike all other major hopefuls Orchard lives in a rural riding and if he wins he could help the Liberals challenge the conservatives in rural and Western Canada.

8. Gerard Kennedy

Pros: Kennedy came out of nowhere last time thanks to a strong internet presence and finished in the top 4.

Cons: Kennedy is responsible for the selection of Dion as Liberal leader and will not win over Liberals supporters who feel Dion's selection was a mistake.

Strategy: Kennedy will use his youth and try to capitalize on the Obama momentum by arguing electing a leader in his 60's is not the best way to revitalize the party.

9. Justin Trudeau

Pros: Despite not serving a single day in parliament yet there is already a draft Justin movement based solely on his father's name.

Cons: Trudeau's name still has baggage and Justin Trudeau is a novice politician.

Strategy: If he has a chance of winning Trudeau must convince Quebec is worth investing time in and he must make an impression early in parliament.

10. Ruby Dhalla

Pros: She will be one the youngest contenders for the leadership who is entering her third parliament as an MP.

Cons: Dhalla hasn't held a major portfolio and it's likely too early for her to be considered a serious leadership contender.

Strategy: Dhalla like Dosanjh is a minority who is younger and her acting experience will give her an edge in speeches and debates.

Quebec Regionalism Prevents Conservative Majority

Here's my election postmortem which is a bit delayed.

The conservatives pulled the plug on parliament because they saw crumpling Bloc support in Quebec. It looked like Quebecers were ready to move past regional politics like the west did with the reform party and start voting for national parties. But the Bloc seized on the Arts cuts issue and appealed again to Quebec nationalism which maintained their seat total.

The rest of the country's election results were a pleasant surprise for the conservatives. They picked up a seat in PEI, became the dominant party in Ontario, and maintained their base in Western Canada. The only hurdle was Newfoundland where Danny Williams successfully stopped the conservatives from winning a single seat on the rock.

The Liberals were the big losers in this election. They made a mild comeback in Quebec and their support dropped in English Canada where the other three national parties capitalized. Stephane Dion was a great cabinet minister who battled for Canadian unity and better environment policies. The biggest loss for Canada if he departs his the end of the "tough love" approach to Quebec and the embrace of special concessions to Quebec nationalists. The liberals need to reinvent themselves and make bigger changes than just switching the captain. Andrew Coyne summarized it the best on election night. He made the point that the Liberals won majorities because Ontarion and Quebec were fortresses that other parties couldn't make in roads in. Then they lost Quebec and their majority government. This election they lost Ontario and haven't attempted to make any inroads in the West. The only dominant region the liberals still have is Atlantic Canada.

The NDP looked like the national party that would fade away. The Liberals were expected to regain NDP support to defeat the conservatives and the Green party would siphon off environmental support from the NDP. But Jack Layton ran his strongest campaign and challenged the Liberals position as Canada's dominant progressive party. He didn't become the opposition leader but he maintained his support by criticizing liberal inaction in parliament. In the last week Dion tried to scare NDP voters but failed. After the results came in the NDP maintained or grew their seat total in every region in the nation.

The Greens were the party most disillusioned with their election night result. It is apparent their support slid significantly due to strategic voting that went to the Liberals or NDP to stop conservative candidates. The Greens have run a national campaign the last 3 elections and steadily increased their popular vote but failed to win any seats. May dominated the election coverage early with her exclusion from the debate and her strong performance should have won green seats but it didn't. It's unfair the Greens don't seats while the Bloc has 50 seats with a slightly higher popular vote. The Greens need to realize for a new party to break-in they need to start out as a regional party. The Greens should focus on 20 ridings they might be able to win and use all their resources to win those ridings. They can still run candidates in every riding but it shouldn't be expected for the leader to make a cross-country tour when should could be better utilized by knocking on doors in ridings they have a shot at winning.

We have a race

Weeks ago it appeared Stephen Harper was inching towards a majority or a stronger minority. But due to missteps the national race is too close to call. The polls are too inconsistent and the undecided vote is too high. Due to Harper's declining popularity I think it is very possible that Dion could become Prime Minister by winning the most seats or by willing to form a coalition with the NDP or Green party.

Unlike past elections where the national result was known days before the vote it is apparent that due to many undecided voters and strategic voting in the mix Harper could win a majority a minority or Dion could win a minority.

So what is certain.

The conservatives will lose ground in Quebec after negative reaction to Arts cuts and youth crime reform. In Ontario and BC they have lost support in swing ridings. These losses will result in an overall drop of seats but will it be severe enough to be defeated from government.

As the stock market crashed the Liberal poll numbers soared. Dion handled the financial crisis better than Harper and used the Liberal brand's history of solving economic problems to rebound his polling numbers. Dion's biggest challenge is Atlantic Canada where the green shift has not sold well and it will likely result in a drop of seats. Dion's big hope for any gains is in Ontario or Quebec where star candidates like Justin Trudeau and Gerard Kennedy could gain new Liberal seats.

The NDP set their sites high but if the NDP seriously wants to be considered to form government they need a less in your face leader than Jack Layton. The NDP will increase their popular vote and the only place where they will grow in seats will be the prairies.

The Green Party will double their vote. But with a vote dispersed through the country it is still very difficult for them to win a seat.

Stephen Dion could win a Liberal-Green coalition minority government

Stephen Harper originally called this election because the Bloc looked like they were on the brink of collapse and just through his potential gains in Quebec (10-20 seats) it appeared that Harper would be close to a majority. Harper's next planned move was to attack Dion for weak leadership and combined with momentum from Quebec gains another 10 or more seats in Ontario and BC, Harper might have been able to form a majority government.

Two weeks ago that was a possibility but his mishandling of his response to a global financial crisis has erased his gains and in the last week he is fighting to remain as prime minister. Harper didn't release his platform before the debate and his "don't panic" approach to the finish crisis looks like he doesn't care and doesn't want to take any risks.

Stephane Dion's poor English and the "not a leader" ads reduced Stephane Dion's image to that as a struggling leader who would immediately be replaced after the election. But the financial crisis has boosted the Liberals because of their record of rejuvenating weak Canadian economies. The Liberals defeated R.B. Bennett's conservative government after the Great Depression occurred. Most recently it was Jean Chretien's government who balanced the budget and lowered the unemployment rate after taking over during a recession.

The NDP's support is growing as Canadians are becoming more alienated from Canada's two major parties. The NDP's realistic goal was to replace the liberals as the official opposition. Even with growing support from a politically-central platform it is too difficult for the NDP to double their support nationally but being able to secure 20% of the vote and obtaining
double-digit support in Quebec the NDP won't be able to become the official opposition party.

The Bloc were Stephen Harper's original target for seats but the Conservatives campaign has alienated Quebec voters. Cutting of arts programs, getting tough on young offenders, and lack of empathy towards the financial crisis has driven some conservative supporters back to the Bloc.

No other party will gain more than the Green party. Elizabeth May's presence at the debate solidified the Greens as a major political party. The Greens support will double or even triple from their 4% vote total last-time and there will be Green seat victories and the bar now is set higher for them to get official party status (12 seats) and not just win one seat.

My prediction is based on the recent Liberal surge in the polls. The Liberals couldn't have picked a better time to rise in the polls. This recent growth will help sway undecided voters and win back voters. I predict the Liberals will receive a higher popularity vote than the Conservatives but will receive fewer seats the conservatives.

2008 Seat/Vote Projection
Conservative 109 seats-30%
Liberal 106 seats-32%
Bloc 50 seats-8%
NDP 32 seats-20%
Green 6 seats-10%
Ind. 2 seats

If this scenario occurs it is very likely the Liberals and Greens will form a coalition minority government that will give Stephane Dion the Prime Minister's chair. Also for this government to work the NDP won't be able to prop up the conservatives or the Liberals/Greens. For a Liberal/Green government to survive they will have to secure support from the conservatives or the Bloc. If the financial crisis persists the parties can't look opportunistic by forcing an early election after the public decided who to give their support during this financial crisis.

BC will the source of Green support with the 3 established seats losing ground as the Greens will pick up 4 greens in BC. Look for the Greens to defeat Liberals Hedy Fry and Keith Martin. Also, Gary Lunn will lose his seat in the Gulf Islands.

The Prairies will remain a conservative stronghold but will lose some ground to NDP who have moved themselves closer to the center by opposing a carbon tax. The NDP might even make a breakthrough in Edmonton-Strathcona in Alberta.

Last election the conservatives won several close elections in Ontario but slide in their support will cause them to lose several close ridings. Tony Clement will be another minister who lose his seat and Guelph could move to the Greens.

Quebec was supposed to be a windfall for the Conservatives with the Bloc in freefall but expect only minor changes in party seat totals in Quebec.

The Liberals Green Shift has not sold well in Atlantic Canada. The NDP will make some gains and I expect Elizabeth May to defeat Peter Mackay in his own riding. May was second in London, Ontario even though she was a parachuted candidate. May is from Nova Scotia and party leaders have a good record of winning seats from other parties in recent years. (Jack Layton and Joe Clark)

The North only has 3 seats but has had more attention due to global warming, northern sovereignty, and Aboriginal/Inuit rights. Stephane Dion's presence in the North during the election campaign will help him win back the Liberals former seat in the Western Arctic.