Sleeping Dragon

With Canada finally saying no to the missile defence program it has sparked debate about the purpose of missile defence and what is a real threat to Canada. Continentalists in Canada opposed this decision by stating would lose any say over US missiles launched over Canadian airspace and put Canadians at risk from missiles launched from North Korea.

First, threatening to fire missiles over Canada without our authorization is a threat and proof that the greatest threat to Canada is the only nation ever to invade us. Second, North Korea is an impoverished country and it is unthinkable that they would be able to acquire the resources to build an ICBM. The main country at risk is South Korea and the city of Seoul. The United States would never build a multi-billion dollar missile defence system to protect itself from a country incapable of attacking it directly. The system is being built to defend against a future attack from Russia or China. Since the end of the Cold War, the nuclear race discontinued and warheads were eliminated.

The US missile defence shield will change the status quo because China and Russia will feel it is directed towards them. China and Russia's first response will be to increase their nuclear arsenal to overwhelm the missile defence shield. It is also no secret that the shield has been having problems. Initial tests have been a failure and it might not even work. The Russians are actually further ahead on missile that would swerve making missile defence futile. But fortunately, Russia is a democracy and I hope that the winds of change that transformed Ukraine during the October revolution will spread to Russia.

China is the nation to be feared because it could alter the global balance. It is not democratic and the communist party restricts freedom of speech. However, it is open to foreign investment and capitalism, which is encouraging. It appears to be developing oppositely, how Russia escaped communism. Russia first allowed freedom of speech and then the free market came with the establishment of democracy. Doing it the other way around may not be the ideal situation because China could revert to pseudo-fascism. China has shown that states will ignore human rights injustices and allow China to continue to remain the same to maintain their foreign investment. After the Tiananmen Square massacre, the world used only word and no heavy sanctions to backup their disapproval. This appeasement has allowed China to continue public dissent although it has improved with the opening up of the economy. But there still has not been any democratic elections, a free Tibet, or the liberalization of its media. One could even say they were rewarded with the 2008 Olympics. Expect trouble with thousands of journalists running around the country and a few broken cameras.

Other then missile defence the issue that puts China in the limelight is their explosive economic growth. Realistically, this growth will not continue forever but it will be interesting to see how close they come to the US economic dominance. China is already making an impact. It is driving up world prices most notably oil. The US is currently in horrible economic shape with an enormous deficit, too low taxation, and being stuck in Iraq. The question facing the US was 9/11 and its current trade deficit just temporarily or a sign of an empire in decline. This year's budget deficit in the US is a US$236 billion and there current total a drop of $757 billion when Bill Clinton occupied the White House. If it gets any worse, the day may come when China will start setting up branch plants in the US to take advantage of cheap labour costs. If China closes the gap, even more a tense situation could occur if they challenge US economic dominance.

So what should we do about China? Economic sanctions, a full-out attack or the status quo with the opening up of the free market. Sanctions probably will antagonize the situation and stifle the world economy with the elimination of one of the world's biggest economies. A full out attack is the worst option because it will see limited nuclear weapons attacks and millions of casualties. The current status quo seems like the best option by default. But the world has to start exerting its influence now with tougher words and temporary sanctions to improve freedom of expression. China's economic boom has given it great wealth and it is at the point now that it will introduce democratic reforms to maintain its economic rise.

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