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Dave's 2005-2006 Winter Election PredictionsSince there was a federal election just a year and a half ago nothing should change but areas like Quebec and BC will see some major seat movements. In Quebec the sponsorship scandal is plaguing the liberals where Quebekers are outraged that the rest of Canada thinks their political process is dominated by envelopes stuffed with money.In British Columbia the conservatives are facing major problems because of the Grehwal's and voters are more inclined to vote NDP and Liberal there. The NDP is on the rebound in BC because bad memories of the NDP provincial government are fading and the NDP looks ready to capitalize on the scandals plaguing the liberals and conservatives. The main reason why the conservatives are unable to topple the liberals is they are the third place party in Canada's three big cities: Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. No party in the world can form a government without support from its major urban centres. Also the prospect of an NDP government is even weaker with the extremely effective liberal strategy of creating the "strategic voter". This voter would prefer to vote NDP but because of our first past the vote system the liberals have framed this election as a two-way horse race.  Liberal
Party of Canada Last election, the liberals required the progressive conservative vote to cling to power. This time Martin is trying to win back Chetienite voters by making the liberals stand out from the other parties. Martin is viewed as a soft-nationalist but this election is using the hardline approach to Quebec nationalism of Chretien and Trudeau. Also, a spat with Washington and Bill Clinton standing next to him at an international conference certainly helped. This election the liberals will gain a few seats but lose ground in Canada's too most populated provinces where voters are fatigued from continuously voting for the liberals. The other regions will remain the same. One province to watch is Alberta where the liberals are likely to hang on to Anne McLellan's seat. Plus they are quietly running a strong campaign to unseat conservatives Peter Goldring and Rob Anders with two strong female candidates; Nicole Martel and Jennifer Pollack. Look for the liberals to win one of those two seats. Seats: 111 Popular Vote: 33% Ontario: 60 seats Atlantic: 22 seats Quebec: 12 seats BC: 8 seats Prairies: 6 seats North: 3 seats Conservative Party of 
Canada This probably will be Stephen Harper's last election with sign of conservatives gains are limited. The conservatives have sounded over negative and voting with the Bloc to bring down the government doesn't look good for a party that wants to Stand up for Canada. Most conservative ridings are in rural Canada and the conservatives will continue their dominance. This election they will increase their seats in Ontarioi but because of Grehwal and other problems in BC the conservatives will drop in their seat count. Seats: 94 Popular Vote: 29% Praries: 41 seats Ontario: 34 seats BC: 12 seats Atlantic: 7 seats  Bloc
Québécois The Bloc strategy- Liberals corrupt, vote for us. It will work because all of the other political parties support are only in the single digits. Look for the bloc to knock off high profile liberals like Liz Frulla and Jean Lapierre. Seats: 63 Popular Vote: 14%  New
Democratic Party of Canada The NDP are setting realistic expectations this time around. They are positioning themselves of the party to hold the liberals and conservatives to account if their is a minority government. The NDP are targeting specific ridings in BC and Saskatchewan where the liberals were third and the conservatives won and trying to stop NDP voters from voting strategically. Seats: 33 Popular Vote: 17% BC: 13 seats Ontario: 12 seats Prairies: 5 seats Atlantic: 3 seats The Others  During the Gomery
Commission when
voter support drifted from the major parties some polls put the Green
party support as high as 10%. It's doubtful the greens will poll that
high but they might be able to steal a few seats in BC where most of
the incumbents could lose their seats.Seats: 3 Popular Vote: 7% BC: 3 seats Related Rants: Winter Elections 2005-2006 News Centre Vote 2004 Joe's 2005-2006 Winter Election Predictions canadianwild.ca Feedback 0 Comments canadianwild.ca Interactive: Your Chance To Rant |
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