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Dave's 2005-2006 Winter Election PredictionsThere will be an election this spring. If it comes, June or July is up for Paul Martin to decide. The liberal election machine is ready to roar and no scandal will derail it. However, can the liberals get a fourth straight majority?Six months ago, it looked like the liberals would coast to an easy victory with over 200 seats. But the sponsorship scandal changed everything. In order to win the election the liberals will have to work harder than any recent election in previous memory. In order to prevail they should ignore the NDP and focus entirely on the Conservatives. The liberals need to reduce the Conservative vote to 25% or under by election time. The liberals will attack the conservatives on these five issues: a) The Iraq war: They will replay Stephen Harper's and Ralph Klein's comments. Paul Martin will abandon earlier ideas of cozying up to the US and will portray the Conservatives of trying to make Canada the 51st state. Expect to see commercials of Stephen Harper's victory with all the waving US flags in the crowd. b) Healthcare: The liberals will use the same lines from their 2000 playbook c) Stephen Harper, Stockwell, Day, Peter MacKay: The liberals will attack the present leader and the past leaders for their radical views and their integrity. Stephen Harper's firewall and conspiracies, Stockwell Day' s flat tax and neo-conservative views, and lastly Peter Mackay for ripping the heart out of John A MacDonald's party. d) Urban issues: Paul Martin will go all out on this one. He will portray the cons as a bunch of extremists coming from the wilderness and will promise more money for infrastructure and fighting poverty. e) Canadian beef: Most people seem to forget that the liberals came through with the money for Canada's ranchers. In politics, it is easiest to win by picking your enemies carefully and showing no mercy towards them. After earlier statements by Ralph Klein welcoming a Paul Martin government, Klein has reverted to fed bashing. Do not be surprised if Martin replays Klein's comments that the Alberta rancher should have shot, shovelled, and shut up. Martin will portray the liberals as the party that protected Canadian beef's integrity. Also what two regional parties refused punishing Canada's largest meatpackers for not allowing Ottawa to see their profits? The conservatives and the bloc.  Liberal
Party of Canada The liberals may be embroiled in scandal but they know how to rebound. The liberals will not be able to move much higher in the polls. Attracting the progressive conservative vote and a stronger NDP should not be much of a factor. Say hello to a fourth straight liberal majority government. Seats: 166 Popular Vote: 36.6% Ontario: 87 seats Atlantic: 27 seats Quebec: 22 seats BC: 13 seats Prairies: 12 seats Alberta: 5 seats  Bloc
Québécois 2004 will be 1993 all over again. With Canadians unable to trust the new conservative coalition, the Bloc will form the official opposition because of anger towards the provincial liberals in Quebec and the sponsorship scandal. Seats: 53 Popular Vote: 11.7% (Quebec 50%) Conservative Party of 
Canada The conservatives have the most to lose. They have themselves to blame for wanting to prostitute Canada to the US during the Iraq War. They are out of touch with mainstream Canadians. Merging with PC's will not help since former PM Joe Clark will not be voting for them and Scott Brison fled Stephen Harper's party. Between Rob Anders calling Nelson Mandela a terrorist, Jason Kenney's Canadian Taxpayer's federation views, and Peter Goldring wanting to annex a Carribean island this party doesn't have a hope in hell of forming a government. The Alliance party the largest part of the new Conservative party was not a big-tent party but rather a far-right political ideology that always ignored what the majority of Canadians want (Iraq war) and Canadian don't want a government that makes them feel powerless. Expect a complete wipeout in Atlantic Canada, small gains in Ontario, and lost seats in the West. (Including 3 lost seats in Alberta) Seats: 47 Popular Vote: 20.8% Alberta: 23 seats BC: 10 seats Ontario: 9 seats Praires: 5 seats  New
Democratic Party of Canada Right now, the polls show the NDP should double their votes from the last election. The liberals are not going to consider the NDP a factor and they will approach record vote territory. Nevertheless, because the NDP is a national party with no strong region they will only receive over 40 seats. Voters in BC are ready to return to the NDP. Do you really think Hedy Fry will be re-elected? Seats: 41 Popular Vote: 26.9% Prairies: 14 seats BC: 12 seats Ontario: 10 seats Atlantic: 5 seats The Others  The Green will
probably be the
biggest vote getter for a non-mainstream
party. The greens are polling 10% in BC. They might break new ground
and be able to win a riding there. Seats: 1 Popular Vote: 4.1% Related Rants: United Right Fails to sink Martin; Left makes big strides Vote 2004 Election 2004 ... and the future canadianwild.ca Interactive: Your Chance To Rant |
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