Rejuvenated Conservative Party in Quebec wins most seats in divided parliament

With an election only 18 months ago and opinion polls showing little change, it appeared this winter election would be a carbon copy of the 2004 election. But this election certainly raised a few eyebrows. This election saw Stephen Harper using photo-ops, a RCMP investigation midway through the election, the most self-destructive commericials since Kim Campbell's campaign, and a sitting prime minister promising to radically change Canada's constitution.

And that was just the election campaign. After the votes were tallied Paul Martin stepped down as Liberal leader and will go down in history as the shortest serving Liberal leader. He fought for a decade to seize control of the party but was leader for barely two years. Stephen Harper ran a flawless campaign except for his comment on the Liberals controlling the Supreme Court and the Public Service.

Conservatives: 124 seats, 36.4% of the popular vote (30% increase from the 2004 election)

The Conservative party won the election with slight gains in Engish Canada but the province that changed the parties fortunes was Quebec. The Conservatives were not a factor in Quebec and would have been lucky to win a seat. But they won 10 and replaced the Liberals as the federalist alternative to the Bloc.

Here's the top 3 moves by the conservatives that catapulted Stephen Harper into 24 Sussex:

1. GST

Stephen Harper rebranded himself as a leader who utilitzed photo-ops. Harper's 5% GST stickers on TV's right before Christmas was pure genius. Conservatives have always pushed for tax cuts but cornerned themselves in a corner because their tax cuts benefited rich rather than average Canadians. The GST is a flat tax that makes new distinction on a person's income and lowering it helps the economy because people have more money to spend on goods in Canada. The Conservatives outflanked the Liberals on the Left while right-wing institutions like the C.D. Howe Institute were praising the Liberal income tax cuts. It's hard to paint the Conservatives as the right-wing monster.

2. Hide The Radicals

All of the problem MP's for conservatives missed local forums, didn't speak to the national media, and in some cases MP's reduced their campaigning in safe ridings. All of the focus was on the leader and unlike other elections other conservative MP's couldn't derail their fortunes.

3. Effective use of tax cuts

Tradionally the Conservatives have marketed tax cuts during the election with the sole selling point- it will put more money in Canadians pockets. The Conservatives offered two policy ideas during this election for tax credits. The first was a tax credit for transit users. This idea offered a tax cut to Canadians plus it painted the Conservatives as a friendlier party to the environment. The second was tax credits for parents who have kids playing sports. The Liberals didn't even try criticizing that idea.

The conservatives ran an election on accountability and they will make government more transparent. But the moment they attained power Stephen Harper appointed a Liberal (the party who he said was too corrupt to govern anymore) and an unelected senator. The Liberals won't gain on these moves because it's likely more Canadians may not vote next time.

Liberals: 103 Seats, 30.2% of the popular vote (82.3% of the vote from the 2004 election)

The Liberals didn't deserve to win this election. Support for the Liberals from its own supporters was very lukewarm at the start of the election campaign. All summer the Liberals were having trouble raising funds and most of their supporters were relunctantly supporting the Liberals because they didn't like what the other parties had to offer.

The Liberals unlike the conservatives didn't have any photo-ops. The whole election Paul Martin spoke from podiums and didn't grab the interest of photographers. The Liberals introduced a new tougher handgun law and tuition breaks for low-income students. They could have showed Paul Martin handing novelty cheques to students but they didn't.

Even with all the trouble spiralling out of the Gomery inquiry, the Liberals still should have maintained a minority government. The sponsorship scandal was mishandled because Paul Martin made it the Liberals achilles heal. Martin went on his "mad as hell" tour saying how mad he was about the sponsorship scandal but didn't offer any new solutions to solve the problem. He said the federal government had a democratic deficit and this election Canadians believed him.

Like the sponsorship scandal the Liberals sealed their own faith with the Income Trust Scanadal. During the 1988 election one of Mulroney's ministers was under investigation but the RCMP waited till after the election to make the announcement. The Liberals didn't ask that question and Martin followed procedure. The 3 flops that relegated the Liberal leader to Stornoway (other than the Income Trust scandal) are:

1. Liberal Ads

The sponsorship scandal prevented the Liberals from gaining a majority and there own election ads pushed them out of office. The anti-military ad which alleges Harper will send soldiers with guns into canadian cities was a national disgrace. The other Liberal ad that alleges a Harper victory will make George W Bush happy was immature and forced Canadians who didn't want the Prime Minister to be an irritant to the US President to look at the other parties on the ballot.

2. Team Martin

The team surrounding Paul Martin has proven they can do only thing. They can successfully remove a Prime Minister who won 3 straight majority governments from office by running an underground campaign to ruin his reputation. But upon taking power the Martin liberals ended up finishing the work started by his predecessor. Other than cities and daycare, Paul Martin's main job was to pass into law legislation that was originally introduced under Chretien. Martin passed the civil marriages act and implemented a plan to meet Canada's Kyoto obligations. Martin will be known as the caretaker Prime Minister who had a great career as a finance minister.

In the two elections Team Martin faced, they used the same strategy used to overthrow Chretien in fighting out Stephen Harper. They went all-negative and tried to discredit Mr. Harper. They failed to introudce any meaningful policy ideas.

3. Vicious Attacks

Never before have the Liberals sunk as low as did in the 2005-2006 Winter campaign. They called the wife of the leader of the NDP a dog. A call made from a liberal campaign office accused a Saskatchewan MP of rape. David Emerson accussed Layton of having a smile of a boiled dog. The beer and popcorn remark actually looked like one of the more dignified remarks when the campaign was threw.

Bloc: 51 seats, 36.4% of the popular vote (84.7% of the vote from the 2004 election)

What can I say? The sponsorship scandal tainted the Liberals as crinimals and the Bloc lost 15% of their support. The Conservatives resurrected the Quebec wing of the party and with an endorsement from Dumont (a soft separtist) both the Liberals and especially the Bloc lost support. The Conservatives sold themselves as a federal alternative to the Liberals and the Bloc can't form a government. Layton has sold Canadians on how much the NDP effected the last parliament session and the Bloc's only goal was to bring down the government so they could fight another election and lose 3 seats.

NDP: 29 seats, 36.4% of the popular vote (11.5% increase from the 2004 election)

The NDP has long advocated for proportional represenation. But this time they took advantage of the Liberals by winning some ridings and with only an increase of 11.5% in support they were able to gain 10 new seats. But the NDP are stuck in a difficult position. They gained support by asking Liberals to 'lend' their support the NDP. Also they feriously attacked the Liberals and ignored the Conservatives. If the NDP supports conservative policies they have long oppossed, NDP voters may run to the Liberals next time.

Green: 0 seats, 4.5% of the popular vote (4.7% increase from the 2004 election)

The Green made very marginal gains and need to do something to gain attention. Being invited to the debates would be nice but they also need to attract high-profile candidates to run for their party. They lost ground in BC ridings they thought they could win. There strongest ridings were Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound where they received 12.9% of the vote. In Ottawa Centre they recorded their highest amount of vote 6766. But the province where the Green party was the strongest was Alberta, and they finished second in Myron Thompson's riding.

Related Rants:

Winter Election 2005-2006 News Centre

Dave's 2005-2006 Election Predictions

United Right Fails to sink Martin; Left makes big strides

Rejuvenated Conservative Party in Quebec wins most seats in divided parliament

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